Germany’s conservative bloc, led by Friedrich Merz, has secured a narrow victory in the federal election, positioning Merz to potentially become the nation’s next chancellor. The Christian Democratic Union and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union , garnered approximately 28.5% of the vote, according to official results. This outcome, while a win, reflects the CDU/CSU’s second-worst performance in post-war history, underscoring the fragmented nature of Germany’s current political landscape.
The far-right Alternative für Deutschland achieved a historic milestone by capturing 20.8% of the vote, marking its best performance to date and elevating it to the position of the second-largest party in the Bundestag. This surge indicates a significant shift in voter sentiment, with the AfD capitalizing on public concerns over immigration and economic instability.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party experienced a severe decline, securing only 16.4% of the vote—their worst result in modern history. This downturn reflects growing dissatisfaction with the current government’s handling of key issues and signals a potential realignment in Germany’s political order.
Despite the CDU/CSU’s plurality, forming a stable government presents a formidable challenge. Traditional coalition partners, such as the Free Democratic Party , failed to surpass the 5% threshold required for parliamentary representation, eliminating them as potential allies. The Greens, who obtained 11.6% of the vote, could be considered for a coalition; however, significant policy divergences, particularly on environmental and economic matters, may complicate negotiations.
Merz has unequivocally ruled out any collaboration with the AfD, citing fundamental differences in values and the AfD’s controversial policies. This stance further narrows the CDU/CSU’s coalition options, potentially leaving a partnership with the SPD as the most viable path to forming a government. However, given the SPD’s recent electoral losses and differing policy priorities, such a coalition may face internal resistance and complex negotiations.
The election was precipitated by the collapse of Germany’s first-ever three-party coalition government in November 2024. Disputes over fiscal policies, particularly the debt brake, led to the dissolution of the alliance between the SPD, Greens, and FDP. This political upheaval set the stage for an early election, as parties vied to address the pressing concerns of an electorate increasingly polarized over issues such as immigration, economic policy, and Germany’s role on the international stage.
Voter turnout was notably high, with 82.5% of eligible voters casting their ballots, the highest participation rate since reunification. This robust engagement reflects the electorate’s acute awareness of the election’s significance amid a backdrop of economic challenges and shifting geopolitical alliances.
Merz, a seasoned politician with a background in finance, campaigned on a platform advocating for stricter immigration controls, the preservation of the debt brake, and corporate tax reductions aimed at stimulating economic growth. He also emphasized the need to bolster Germany’s global influence and reduce reliance on traditional allies, particularly in light of strained relations with the United States under the Trump administration.
The AfD’s ascent can be attributed to its focus on nationalist rhetoric and policies addressing public fears regarding immigration and economic uncertainty. Despite its electoral gains, the party remains a polarizing force, with mainstream parties steadfastly refusing to engage in coalition talks due to the AfD’s extremist affiliations and controversial positions.
As coalition discussions commence, Germany faces a period of political uncertainty. The potential revival of a grand coalition between the CDU/CSU and SPD may provide stability but could also perpetuate voter disenchantment with traditional parties. Alternatively, attempts to form an alliance with the Greens may signal a shift towards more progressive policies but would require significant compromises from both sides.
