In quick-paced developments, Myanmar’s ruling junta has invited the armed rebel groups to stop fighting and participate in political talks. “We invite ethnic armed groups, terrorist insurgent groups, and terrorist PDF groups which are fighting against the state to give up terrorist fighting and communicate with us to solve political problems politically,” the junta said in a statement.
This closely follows news reports that India’s government-funded think tank, India Council of World Affairs (ICWA), has invited representatives from NUG, the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), the Arakan Army, and the Chin National Front to the seminar.
Meanwhile, China, which has long influenced Myanmar’s ethnic armed groups, is pressuring the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, or MNDAA to avoid aligning with other opposition forces that China perceives as Western-backed, experts say. MNDAA is part of the Three Brotherhood Alliance that includes the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and the Arakan Army (AA). The MNDAA, also known as the Kokang ethnic armed group, whose members are Mandarin-speaking Han Chinese native to Kokang, reposted a statement on social media confirming their alliance with China.
“Our political red line is not to form alliances or work together with those who are against China,” read the statement, which was briefly posted on September 4 and reposted on September 19.
Beijing’s pressure on the MNDAA, a strategically located ethnic armed group in Myanmar, reflects its desire to maintain control over the country’s political landscape. The MNDAA, situated on Myanmar’s northeastern border with China, is being pressured to cut ties with opposition forces that Beijing perceives as having U.S. support.
Once a symbol of economic cooperation, the border between China and Myanmar has become more restrictive due to Myanmar’s ongoing civil war and China’s pandemic response. The once-porous border has been fortified with fences and surveillance, reflecting a deteriorating relationship.
While China has invested heavily in Myanmar for a trade corridor, the conflict has disrupted these plans. Beijing has attempted to mediate the conflict but has faced challenges. The civil war has also impacted the once-thriving economic zones along the border. Despite the tensions, some locals continue to maintain informal connections across the border.
A recent Reuters report has said that India has invited Myanmar rebels who are fighting the military government and the parallel National Unity Government (NUG) representatives for a seminar in mid-November in India. This is the first time that India would formally engage with the Myanmar rebels who are popularly called ‘the resistance’. Since the February 2021 coup, the situation in Myanmar has spiralled out of control, with rebels controlling over 60% of the territory including most of the border states.
In recent months, the intense fighting between rebels and the military has had a spillover effect in India’s bordering states, with an influx of refugees many of whom come with weapons and ammunition. India fears it can destabilize its 1650-km long border with Myanmar and several of its infrastructure projects involving the two countries.
In view of this, the government-funded think tank, India Council of World Affairs (ICWA), has reportedly invited representatives from NUG, the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), the Arakan Army, and the Chin National Front to the seminar. However, except the Chin National Front, none of those invited including the Myanmar military have offered any comments on it. Even the Indian government and ICWA have offered no official comments.
“We are going to send representatives,” Sui Khar, vice chairman of one the ethnic rebel groups, the Chin National Front, said. “This will be the first time, I think, formally, that India will engage with the non-state actors. This is a good, positive approach,” he added.
India has maintained a relationship with the Myanmar junta rules through official visits and continuing with some arms deals that were formalized before the coup. It has avoided voicing concerns about the growing conflict and the resultant humanitarian crisis in the Southeast Asian nation. However, in June this year, Foreign Minister S Jaishankar expressed concern about border instability and security risks to India’s projects in Myanmar.
India is actively developing the $400 million Kaladan port and highway project in western Myanmar, while also investing around $250 million in a separate road project that will connect its landlocked northeastern states with Thailand through Myanmar.
India’s initiative to bring rebels to a dialogue comes amid similar initiatives by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which Myanmar never took seriously. Prominent leaders from ASEAN member countries made several visits to Myanmar to end the impasse but to no avail. Recently, Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi made a surprise visit to Myanmar capital Naypyidaw amid reports that Myanmar military rulers are expressing resentment over China’s dual policy of helping the rebels and keeping a working relationship with the military government. (IPA Service)
